社区支持预测与需求规划分析师
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Community Support Forecasting and Demand Planning AnalystAirbnb · 美国
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职位描述
机器翻译Airbnb 诞生于 2007 年，当时两位房东在他们旧金山的家中接待了三位房客，此后已发展到超过 500 万名房东，在全球几乎每个国家接待了超过 20 亿人次房客入住。每天，房东们提供独特的房源和体验，让房客能够以更真实的方式与社区建立联系。
你将加入的社区：
社区支持组织每年处理数千万次互动，通过电话、消息、聊天或社交媒体渠道与 Airbnb 客户互动。该团队处理涵盖多个类别的数百个问题，包括取消、账户问题、退款、付款、预订、特殊情况、预订与房源问题、安全与索赔。该组织在全球分布，在旧金山、都柏林、蒙特利尔、西雅图、新加坡、马尼拉、古尔冈设有办公室，并拥有覆盖所有地区的广泛合作伙伴网络。
你将带来的改变：
我们正在为我们的社区支持（CS）团队寻找一位经验丰富的预测与需求规划分析师。该人员负责我们全球运营团队多渠道联络中心运营的需求预测和长期规划。该角色确保组织在正确的时间拥有具备正确技能的合适资源，以满足服务水平目标，同时优化成本和生产效率。
该角色结合了规划、高级分析和业务合作，以在复杂、快速变化的环境中推动可扩展、数据驱动的劳动力决策。
典型的一天：
需求预测与统计建模
• 负责所有全球运营团队和渠道（电话、消息、电子邮件、后台等）的短期、中期和长期需求预测。
• 使用时间序列和机器学习技术（例如指数平滑、ARIMA、基于回归的模型等）设计、开发并维护统计上稳健的需求预测模型。
• 执行趋势、季节性和方差分解；检测结构性断点、异常值和需求异常。
• 通过置信区间、误差分布和偏差分析量化预测不确定性。
• 针对高峰需求期、产品发布、增长计划和非计划需求事件执行情景建模。
• 使用统计准确性指标（MAPE、RMSE、MAE、偏差等）持续评估模型表现。
• 建立模型治理标准，包括文档、验证、回测和事后分析。
• 随着业务需求的发展，研究、原型设计并实施新的预测和优化技术。
• 执行情景规划和敏感性分析，以量化服务水平、成本和利用率之间的权衡。
高级分析
• 与分析及数据工程团队合作，设计并构建可扩展的规划数据管道、仪表板，并自动化预测和容量模型，以提高可扩展性、可重复性和及时性。
• 使用 SQL 和 Python 提取、转换并分析大规模运营数据集，以监控预测准确性、容量缺口、利用率和运营风险。
决策支持与利益相关者沟通
• 以清晰、适合高管的格式呈现预测假设、方法、风险、权衡和建议，并作为高级领导层值得信赖的顾问，在跨职能论坛中参与需求/容量规划讨论。
• 协调跨职能利益相关者（交付、产品、财务、人力资源等），将规划输出嵌入执行和运营决策中。
• 在需求和容量规划领域识别并实施流程改进、自动化和最佳实践，以优化成本，同时保持或改善客户体验和服务水平成果。
你的专长：
• 10 年以上需求预测、容量规划、劳动力分析或应用分析经验。
• 数学、统计学、运筹学、工程学、经济学、数据科学或相关定量领域的学士学位。
• 在概率、统计学和优化方面具有扎实基础。
• 具有构建和验证预测模型（时间序列分析、指数平滑、ARIMA、回归、假设检验）和容量模型（Erlang、排队论、服务水平和利用率建模）的实操经验。
• 对联络中心指标（AHT、ASA、服务水平、人员缩减、占用率）有深入理解；优先考虑具有支持大规模、多站点或全球联络中心环境经验者。
• 高级分析技能，熟练掌握 Excel、Google Sheets、SQL、Python 以及 Tableau 等数据可视化工具。
• 优先考虑具有 WFM 工具（例如 NICE、Verint、Aspect）或规划平台（例如 Anaplan）经验者。
• 具有出色的商业敏锐度，能够平衡成本效率和客户体验成果。
• 出色的沟通、高管演示和利益相关者影响能力；能够向非技术受众解释复杂的分析概念。
• 能够在快节奏、模糊且高度动态的环境中自如工作。
你的工作地点：
该职位为美国 - 可远程。根据与经理的约定，该角色可能偶尔需要在 Airbnb 办公室工作或参加异地活动。虽然该职位可远程，但你必须居住在 Airbnb, Inc. 拥有注册实体的州。点击此处查看最新的排除州列表。该列表持续变化，因此如果你居住的州在排除列表中，请再次与我们确认。如果你的职位由另一家 Airbnb 实体雇用，你的招聘人员将告知你可以从哪些州工作。
我们对包容与归属的承诺：
Airbnb 致力于与尽可能广泛的人才库合作。我们相信多元化的想法能够促进创新和参与，并使我们能够吸引具有创意主导力的人才，并开发最好的产品、服务和解决方案。鼓励所有符合条件的个人申请。
我们还努力提供对残障人士包容的申请和面试流程。如果你是残障候选人，并且在提交申请时需要合理便利，请通过以下方式联系我们：reasonableaccommodations@airbnb.com。请包括你的全名、你申请的职位以及协助你完成招聘流程所需的便利。
我们请求你仅在你因残障而无法完成我们的在线申请时联系我们。 我们将如何照顾你：
我们的职位名称可能跨越多个职业级别。实际基本工资取决于许多因素，例如：培训、可迁移技能、工作经验、业务需求和市场需求。基本工资范围可能会发生变化，并可能在未来修改。该角色也可能有资格获得奖金、股权、福利和员工旅行积分。
薪资
$168,000 — $210,000 USD
合理便利：我们致力于在整个招聘过程中为残障申请人提供合理便利。如果你需要帮助或便利，请在有人就某个职位联系你后告知你的招聘人员。
关于招聘诈骗的说明：诈骗者有时会冒充 Airbnb 招聘人员，以从候选人处获取金钱或个人信息。对于 Airbnb 的招聘流程，有几件事始终属实：我们的空缺职位发布在 Airbnb 的职业页面上，网址为 careers.airbnb.com，我们的招聘人员仅通过 @ airbnb.com 或 @ ext.airbnb.com 电子邮件地址联系。我们的招聘人员在你面试期间绝不会询问你的社会安全号码、银行账户详细信息、护照或支付应用信息。我们也绝不会要求你在面试过程中支付费用、汇款、存入或兑现支票，或购买工作相关设备（例如公司笔记本电脑）。我们鼓励候选人对此类招聘诈骗保持警惕，如果你不相信某个人确实隶属于 Airbnb，请不要分享敏感信息。
以上内容由机器翻译自动生成，可能存在错误；投递前请以雇主原文为准。
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职位描述
Airbnb was born in 2007 when two hosts welcomed three guests to their San Francisco home, and has since grown to over 5 million hosts who have welcomed over 2 billion guest arrivals in almost every country across the globe. Every day, hosts offer unique stays and experiences that make it possible for guests to connect with communities in a more authentic way.
The Community You Will Join:
The Community Support org handles tens of millions of interactions yearly, engaging with Airbnb customers by phone, messaging, chat, or social media channels. The group handles hundreds of issues across categories including Cancellations, Account Issues, Refunds, Payments, Reservations, Extenuating Circumstances, Booking & Listing issues, Safety & Claims. The organization is globally distributed with offices in San Francisco, Dublin, Montreal, Seattle, Singapore, Manila, Gurgaon and an extensive partner network serving all regions.
The Difference You Will Make:
We are looking for a seasoned Forecasting and Demand Planning Analyst on our Community Support (CS) team. This individual is responsible for demand forecasting and long-term planning across multi-channel contact center operations for our Global Operations team. This role ensures the organization has the right resources, at the right time, with the right skills to meet service level objectives while optimizing cost and productivity.
The role combines planning, advanced analytics and business partnership to drive scalable, data-driven workforce decisions in a complex, fast-changing environment.
A Typical Day:
Demand Forecasting & Statistical Modeling
• Own short-term, mid-term, and long-term demand forecasting across all Global Operations teams and channels (phone, messaging, email, back-office etc.).
• Design, develop, and maintain statistically robust demand forecasting models using time series and machine learning techniques (e.g., exponential smoothing, ARIMA, regression-based models etc.).
• Perform trend, seasonality, and variance decomposition; detect structural breaks, outliers, and demand anomalies.
• Quantify forecast uncertainty through confidence intervals, error distributions, and bias analysis.
• Perform scenario modeling for peak demand periods, product launches, growth initiatives, and unplanned demand events.
• Continuously assess model performance using statistical accuracy metrics (MAPE, RMSE, MAE, bias etc).
• Establish model governance standards, including documentation, validation, back-testing, and post-mortem analysis.
• Research, prototype, and implement new forecasting and optimization techniques as business needs evolve.
• Perform scenario planning and sensitivity analysis to quantify trade-offs between service levels, cost, and utilization.
Advanced Analytics
• In partnership with the Analytics and Data Engineering team, design and build scalable planning data pipelines, dashboards, and automate forecasting and capacity models to improve scalability, repeatability, and timeliness.
• Use SQL and Python to extract, transform, and analyze large-scale operational datasets to monitor forecast accuracy, capacity gaps, utilization, and operational risk.
Decision Support & Stakeholder Communication
• Present forecast assumptions, methodologies, risks, trade-offs, and recommendations in clear, executive-ready formats and act as a trusted advisor to senior leadership and participate in demand/capacity planning discussions in cross-functional forums.
• Align cross-functional stakeholders (Delivery, Product, Finance, HR, and others) to embed planning outputs into execution and operational decision-making.
• Identify and implement process improvements, automation, and best practices in the demand and capacity planning area to optimize cost while maintaining or improving customer experience and service-level outcomes.
Your Expertise:
• 10+ years of experience in demand forecasting, capacity planning, workforce analytics, or applied analytics.
• Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, Engineering, Economics, Data Science, or a related quantitative field.
• Strong foundation in probability, statistics, and optimization.
• Hands-on experience building and validating forecasting models (time series analysis, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, regression, hypothesis testing) and capacity models (Erlang, queueing theory, service-level and utilization modeling).
• Strong understanding of contact center metrics (AHT, ASA, service level, shrinkage, occupancy); experience supporting large-scale, multi-site, or global contact center environments preferred.
• Advanced analytical skills with strong proficiency in Excel, Google Sheets, SQL, Python and data visualization tools such as Tableau.
• Experience with WFM tools (e.g., NICE, Verint, Aspect) or planning platforms (e.g., Anaplan) preferred.
• Strong business acumen with the ability to balance cost efficiency and customer experience outcomes.
• Excellent communication, executive presentation, and stakeholder influence skills; ability to explain complex analytical concepts to non-technical audiences.
• Comfortable operating in fast-paced, ambiguous, and highly dynamic environments.
Your Location:
This position is US - Remote Eligible. The role may include occasional work at an Airbnb office or attendance at offsites, as agreed to with your manager. While the position is Remote Eligible, you must live in a state where Airbnb, Inc. has a registered entity. Click here for the up-to-date list of excluded states. This list is continuously evolving, so please check back with us if the state you live in is on the exclusion list If your position is employed by another Airbnb entity, your recruiter will inform you what states you are eligible to work from.
Our Commitment To Inclusion & Belonging:
Airbnb is committed to working with the broadest talent pool possible. We believe diverse ideas foster innovation and engagement, and allow us to attract creatively-led people, and to develop the best products, services and solutions. All qualified individuals are encouraged to apply.
We strive to also provide a disability inclusive application and interview process. If you are a candidate with a disability and require reasonable accommodation in order to submit an application, please contact us at: reasonableaccommodations@airbnb.com . Please include your full name, the role you’re applying for and the accommodation necessary to assist you with the recruiting process.
We ask that you only reach out to us if you are a candidate whose disability prevents you from being able to complete our online application. How We'll Take Care of You:
Our job titles may span more than one career level. The actual base pay is dependent upon many factors, such as: training, transferable skills, work experience, business needs and market demands. The base pay range is subject to change and may be modified in the future. This role may also be eligible for bonus, equity, benefits, and Employee Travel Credits.
薪资
$168,000 — $210,000 USD
Reasonable Accommodations: We are committed to providing reasonable accommodations throughout the recruitment process for applicants with disabilities. If you need assistance, or an accommodation, please let your recruiter know once you are contacted about a role.
A Note on Recruiting Scams: Scammers sometimes pose as Airbnb recruiters to get money or personal information from candidates. A few things that will always be true for Airbnb’s hiring process: our open roles are posted on Airbnb’s Career’s Page at careers.airbnb.com, and our recruiters correspond only from @ airbnb.com or @ ext.airbnb.com email addresses. Our recruiters will never ask for your Social Security number, bank account details, passport, or payment app information while you are interviewing. We’ll also never ask you to pay a fee, send money, deposit or cash a check, or purchase work-related equipment (such as a company laptop) during the interview process. We encourage candidates to remain vigilant of these recruiting scams and not share sensitive information if you do not believe an individual is actually affiliated with Airbnb.